Copper prices sounded the horn of counter attack,

Copper price blows the horn of counter attack? Abstract: the new week will usher in the speeches of a number of Fed officials, as well as important economic data such as the US PCE price index and ISM manufacturing PMI. In addition, the semi annual OPEC conference will also be held in the coming week

copper prices rebounded this week due to the strike of workers in Southern Copper Industry and Escondida copper mine in Chile, as well as the decline of LME copper inventory. However, from the perspective of global total inventory, the decline of LME copper inventory is not the decline of inventory driven by the improvement of global demand, but the result of inventory transfer. As of the day closing on November 24, the Shanghai copper 1801 contract rose 3.3% from Monday to Friday, up 1750 yuan/ton

what will happen next week? According to SMM's survey of domestic industry insiders, compared with the daily closing price of 54340 yuan/ton on November 24; 50% of participants are bullish on copper prices in the short term (up more than 1%); 22% of participants saw strong shocks (up less than 1%); Gary Cheng added: "nowadays, the excellent performance of ceramic components has been used in many fields, among which% of participants are bearish on copper price (down more than 1%); 13% of participants 1. The factors that determine the quality of pressure testing machine are weak (down less than 1%) 。

Xu Meili, research director of Everbright futures metals/Xu Meili: pay attention to China's economic data next week. In October, the official manufacturing PMI decreased significantly, while Caixin manufacturing PMI remained flat. It is expected that the manufacturing PMI will continue to decline in November, and the market's expectation of China's economic data is not very optimistic. There is a response from the trend of the stock market and bond market. In the later stage, it mainly depends on whether the decline of the data exceeds the expectation, If it exceeds the expectation, it may cause obvious bad luck

Zhang Huawei of Soochow Futures: Shanghai copper rebounded strongly after falling for two consecutive weeks last week. After the copper price stabilized near the 60 day moving average, it started a wave of upward trend. As of the closing time of Shanghai copper on Friday afternoon, the Shanghai copper index rose by 2.69% on a weekly basis, while Lun copper rose for six consecutive days, re approaching the $7000/ton mark, indicating that the copper price has been bullish for a long time, the peripheral market is warmer, and the rise of global inflation expectations still supports the copper price to stay at a high level for several years. In addition, LME inventories continued to decline this week, the dollar index weakened, the strike of workers in Southern Copper and Escondida copper mine in Chile, and the rise of US crude oil to a high of more than two years also boosted copper prices. In terms of data, the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in November hit a new high since April 2000, and the U.S. consumer confidence index remained at a high level, indicating that the economic outlook in Europe and the United States is optimistic. However, under the background of domestic financial deleveraging, the capital is tight. The growth rate of domestic copper consumption is expected to decline next year. In the short term, it faces seasonal consumption off-season and other constraints on the upward space of copper price. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level next week, focusing on inventory changes in domestic and foreign exchanges and manufacturing PMI of major economies in the world in November. China's manufacturing PMI is expected to continue to slow down in November due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction

SMM exclusive forecast

next week, Europe and the United States will pay attention to the ISM manufacturing index in November, new home sales in October, and the final PMI value of Markit manufacturing in November. On the disk, Luntong recorded five consecutive positive days, and the moving average on the 5th and 10th was hooked. MACD has been golden fork, and the green column has gradually turned into red column, which has returned to the strong operation range. At present, Lun copper has broken through the early resistance level of $6950/ton, and Lun copper is expected to test the $7000/ton mark

domestically, next week we will focus on China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMI index in November and the year-on-year profit of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in October. At present, Shanghai copper is dragged down by downstream consumption, and its trend is weaker than that of Lun copper. On the disk side, MACD will soon be the golden fork, with the upper part directly pointing to the early operation platform. At the end of next week, the capital flow of the market will be more sensitive and the long short game will increase. Although the lower part depends on the support of the moving average and the effectiveness of the bottom lifting is obvious, the pressure on the upper platform is also obvious. It is expected to be consolidated here and operate at 53500 yuan/ton - 54700 yuan/ton as a whole

in terms of spot goods, next week is the last week of the month. Towards the end of the month, most of the holders have the demand for capital return. Especially after the delivery of long orders within the month, the market may turn to shipment for cash again. The phenomenon of price support and discount this week is difficult to last. However, according to the current strong leading rhythm of Lun copper, the import profit window is still closing. The upward revision of Shanghai Lun ratio needs time and capital. The expectation of a significant and continuous increase in supply is declining, and the pattern of continuous loose supply will be gradually reversed. If the discount is expanded, it can still attract a certain buying force, especially the power of trade speculation, and the activity will continue to improve. It is expected that the spot quotation next week will be at the discount of 180 yuan/ton - 60 yuan/ton, showing the characteristics of first receiving and then expanding

macro interpretation

the US dollar index has been losing ground this week. Although the European political risk once provided support for the US dollar index, the poor economic data, especially the minutes of the dove meeting, made the US index fall to a two-month low. The initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 1.2% in October. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting unexpectedly favored doves, which made the US dollar index fall by 0.95% this week, recording the largest weekly decline since the week of September 8, and the lowest reached 92.66, the lowest since September 27. The minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting in November showed that many policymakers expected to have to raise interest rates "in the short term". Decision makers generally believe that the economy will grow strongly. 3. Cooling rate: + 30 ℃ ~ 0 ℃ about 2.0 ℃/min. Some policymakers were worried about the continued rise in interest rates despite the low record of inflation expectations. The market believes that the position of the meeting minutes is slightly moderate, and Yellen has said that her expectation that inflation will rebound to the Fed's target soon is "not very sure", which has depressed the dollar. The dollar index fell after the minutes were released

the political situation in Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, was unexpected this week, which cast a shadow over many issues such as European economic reform and brexit. The euro once fell to around 1.1720, but after all, the current economic operation of the eurozone is stable, and the financial market is also smooth. The euro later stopped falling and rebounded. On Friday (November 24), there was news that the German Liberal Democratic Party softened its attitude and said it was open to negotiations with Merkel. The risk of re-election in Germany dropped sharply. The euro hit 1.1944 against the US dollar this week, the highest since September 25. It is worth mentioning that the economic data released this week showed that the PMI of German manufacturing industry rose to 62.5, the highest since February 2011; The euro zone's comprehensive purchasing managers' index rose to 57.5 in November from 56 in October, the highest level in 79 months; The growth rate of enterprises is the fastest in 17 years. This supported the decision of the European Central Bank to cut monetary stimulus measures announced last month, and also provided upward momentum for the euro

the semi annual meeting of OPEC will be held next week. The market generally expects that OPEC and other major oil producing countries will extend the period of production reduction. In addition, the US EIA crude oil inventory released this week recorded a decline after three weeks. The temporary closure of an oil pipeline from Canada to the United States tightened supply. It is expected to further heat up and jointly help the oil price rise, reaching a maximum of US $59.09/barrel, a new high since July 1, 2015. Last week, the domestic crude oil production of the United States increased by 13000 barrels to 9.658 million barrels/day, recording an increase for five consecutive weeks and continuing to set a new record. If the outcome of the OPEC conference next week is not better than the market expectation, the oil market will face the risk of profit taking; The last time OPEC decided to extend the production reduction period was on May 25, 2017, when the oil price fell by about 5%

at present, the US new home sales data in October may still be better than the average level in recent years, but the market also expects the data in October to be worse than that in September, which may be difficult to provide strong support for the US dollar index. At present, the market has reached a general consensus on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in December, and the impact of the Fed's key speech this week may be weaker than in previous periods. The US PCE price index is a major indicator to measure inflation, so investors need to focus on it

at present, the market generally expects OPEC to extend the production reduction period at this conference, which has been providing upward momentum for oil prices in the near future. OPEC and Russia have reached a draft framework agreement on production reduction and plan to extend the existing agreement until the end of 2018, although there are still key details to be finalized